Guides

Win probability is the one number that tells you not just the score, but each team’s real, live chance of winning the game — here’s how it’s calculated and how to read it.

Leverage index turns the vague feeling that “this is a big moment” into a precise number — here’s what it means and why managers plan around it.

Win probability added credits players for the wins they actually create, rewarding a two-out single that decides a game over four empty hits in a blowout.

A team’s record can lie. Its runs scored and allowed usually don’t — and the gap between the two tells you who has been lucky.

The simplest number in baseball analytics, and one of the most predictive: what a team’s runs scored minus runs allowed actually tells you.

That “68% to make the playoffs” number isn’t a guess — it’s the result of playing the rest of the season thousands of times.

Two teams with identical records can be in completely different positions, because they haven’t played the same league.

There are exactly 24 ways an inning can be arranged. Knowing what each one is worth changes how you watch every at-bat.

It sounds like a vibe. It’s actually a precise rule — and knowing it changes which situations you pay attention to.

WPA measures a play’s effect on one game. cWPA measures its effect on the whole season — which is why a October at-bat can dwarf an entire April.

One number meant to summarise a player’s entire value — how it’s built, what the numbers mean, and where it should be trusted.